The AI Estimation Framework

Stop asking AI how long something will take. Estimate it yourself, split the work into three tiers, add back what AI doesn't compress, then convert effort into a real timeline.

When code is cheap, judgment is priceless.

1

Baseline — as if there were no AI

Your own expert estimate. This is the anchor everything else adjusts from.

Total effort without AI
eng-wks
2

Split the work into three tiers

AI does not speed up every kind of work equally.

3

Add back what AI doesn't compress

Applied as a percentage of the adjusted core effort above.

4

Result

Total estimated effort
0 eng-wks
vs. baseline
120 wks
0x implied speedup
Engineers
Parallel efficiency %
Calendar duration
0 weeks
Report as a range: 00 weeks

Give stakeholders the range, not the single number — a single number gets treated as a promise. Recalibrate the multipliers above as you gather real data from your own team.

Built by Vineet Arya · AI-assisted engineering